An analysis of expertise in intelligence analysis to support the design of human-centered artificial intelligence

Intelligence analysis involves unpredictable processes and decision making about complex domains where analysts rely upon expertise. Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems could support analysts as they perform analysis tasks, to enhance their expertise. However, systems must also be cognisant about how expertise is gained and designed so that this is not impinged. In this paper, we describe the results of Cognitive Task Analysis interviews with 6 experienced intelligence analysts. We capture themes, in terms of their decision making paths during an analysis task, and highlight how each theme is both influenced by expertise and an influence upon expertise. We also identify important interdependencies between themes. We propose that our findings can be used to help design Human-Centered AI (HCAI) systems for supporting intelligence analysts.