Evaluation of the MPS Predictive Policing Trial (redacted)

This report is an evaluation of a trial of predictive policing by the MPS in the Greater London Area. Since 2013, MPS Territorial Policing, Capability and Support (TP C & S) has been trialling a number of predictive policing initiatives in the capital. By late 2014, three commercial predictive policing products and one ‘in house’ (MPS analyst) crime forecasting model (‘MBR’) were being used to support operational decision-making in most London boroughs. The commercial products were each allocated two Borough Operational Command Units (BOCU) in which to operate. The MBR (in principle at least) operated in the remaining 26 of the 32 MPS BOCUs. As part of the evaluation we assessed the hit rates and predictive accuracy indices of the crime forecasting products in two towns outside London: Reading and Slough.