Risk factors of pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: The Hong Kong Diabetes Study

Context
Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with the development of pancreatic cancer (PaC), but few large-scale studies have examined its predictive risk factors.

Objective
The present study aims to examine the predictors for PaC in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a territory-wide, retrospective cohort study.

Methods
This was a territory-wide, retrospective cohort study of patients with T2DM mellitus older than 40 years with no prior history of PaC. Baseline demographics, use of antidiabetic medications, comorbidities, and biochemical parameters were extracted. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CI. Subgroup analyses based on chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages were performed.

Results
This study consisted of 273 738 patients (age = 65.4 ± 12.7 years, male = 48.2%, follow-up duration = 3547 ± 1207 days, disease duration = 4.8 ± 2.3 years), of whom 1148 developed PaC. The number of antidiabetic medications prescribed (HR: 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01-1.42; P = .040), diabetic microvascular complications (HR: 1.91; 95% CI, 1.30-2.81; P < .001), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.81; 95% CI, 1.25-2.64; P = .002), use of acarbose (HR: 2.24; 95% CI, 1.35-3.74; P = .002), and use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (HR: 4.00; 95% CI: 1.28-12.53, P = .017) were associated with PaC development on multivariable Cox regression adjusting for the duration of DM, mean glycated hemoglobin A1c, and history of pancreatic diseases. Stage 3A CKD or below was associated with PaC but not stage 3B or beyond.

Conclusion
Diabetic microvascular complications, especially stage 1, 2, and 3A CKD, were associated with PaCs.