Risk management in relation to firearms licensing

An evaluation into risk management by the MPS firearms enquiry team (FET) in relation to firearms licensing. This included an assessment of current methods for assessing risk and an analysis of data on certificates that were refused on application, refused on renewal, revoked or voluntarily surrendered over a period of just over 20 years.

The MPS assesses the risk posed by granting or renewing an individual’s shotgun and/or Firearm Certificate in robust, fair and clear ways, consistent with legal and national requirements and which follow the guidance of the Home Office, College of Policing and others. None-the-less, assessing risk, in the sense of estimating the likelihood of an individual posing a threat in the future, is a challenging undertaking, made particularly difficult in the context of firearms licensing by the ambiguities inherent in the law and in national policy.

Our research lead us to suggest that risk assessment and decision-making by FET (SCO19) could be further improved in the following ways.