Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta

Against the backdrop of the widespread acceptance of high-quality development and sustainable development concepts, scientifically exploring the intrinsic connection between urban resilience and sustainable development is of vital importance for enhancing regional risk-resistance capabilities and achieving long-term prosperity. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system encompassing four dimensions: economy, society, ecology and infrastructure development, using the entropy method. Additionally, it employs two emerging methods, Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), to examine the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2021. The results indicate that, the overall development trend of urban resilience in the study area was upward. Shanghai (0.70) exhibited the highest urban resilience index, while Anhui (0.09) showed a lower level. The spatial distribution evolved from the "one bright spot, three dark sides" pattern to a "multiple bright spots, peripheral enhancement" pattern. The standard deviation ellipse of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta displayed a northwest-southeast distribution pattern, with the centroid's movement trajectory showing phased migration along the southwest-northeast direction. Configuration analysis indicates that there are four paths for enhancing the resilience index of cities in the Yangtze River Delta: technology-environment-based scientific research path, technology-innovation-based market path, environment-innovation-based economy path and technology-environment-innovation integration path. This study provides an important empirical basis and decision-making reference for promoting the realization of higher quality and more sustainable development strategies in the Yangtze River Delta, China and the world. [Abstract copyright: © 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.]